2025 marked an inflection point for open finance. Regulatory acceleration, ecosystem fragmentation, rising cybercrime, and rapid AI adoption reshaped the risk landscape across the US, UK, and Canada. As we enter 2026, the stakes rise – and so does the opportunity to build a safer, more resilient, more innovative ecosystem.
Drawing on insights from Invela’s work in standardized accreditation, near real-time monitoring, and insurance-backed warranty – plus emerging systemic risks highlighted across the industry – here are our top predictions for 2026.
1. Ecosystem Fragmentation Intensifies
With more data recipients, more use cases, and more intermediaries, fragmentation will intensify in 2026. Financial institutions will face growing challenges around unknown fourth, fifth and nth party exposure, opaque data flows, and rising operational burden – accelerating adoption of network-based open finance risk management.
2. AI Risk Surfaces Become a Board Level Priority
As aggregators and data recipients deploy AI at speed, the risk surface expands dramatically. Boards will demand clear governance, evidence-based outputs, confidence scoring, human-in-the-loop escalation, and strict isolation of customer data environments. Traditional Third-Party Relationship Management (TPRM) models won’t keep pace with AI-driven risk.
3. Accreditation Consolidation Reshapes the Ecosystem
The era of duplicative, bespoke third-party provider onboarding is ending. With inconsistent processes and a rising operational burden, 2026 will start to see consolidation to shared, standardized accreditation frameworks. A single accreditation unlocking access to multiple institutions reduces friction, onboarding delays, and cost.
4. Real-Time Risk Management Becomes the Baseline
Static, point-in-time checks will no longer satisfy regulators or financial institutions.
In 2026, continuous, near real-time oversight becomes the expected standard for third-party risk management – driven by escalating cybercrime. Institutions will require dynamic risk indicator scores and evidence-based alerts to justify account access decisions.
5. Entity Level Monitoring Complements Transaction Level Monitoring
Transaction level monitoring is no longer enough. Risk emerges in how an entity behaves, how it handles both payments and data use cases, and how it interacts across the ecosystem. In 2026, oversight shifts to entity level signals – complaints, fines, dark web exposure, data access patterns, and behavioural anomalies – providing a full spectrum view of trustworthiness that payments transaction level monitoring alone cannot reveal.
6. Early Adopters Gain Structural Advantage
Institutions that move early on standardized accreditation and real-time risk indicator monitoring will gain measurable benefits: faster onboarding, lower operational cost, stronger regulatory alignment, enhanced resilience, and better consumer outcomes. By late 2026, “wait and see” will no longer be a viable strategy.
7. Open Finance Risk Management Becomes the Norm
Risk management moves from back-office obligation to frontline capability.
In 2026, it becomes a visible market signal – shaping partnerships, influencing innovation velocity, and determining who earns trust in open finance. Institutions that can demonstrate transparency and resilience will unlock the next phase of ecosystem growth.
Conclusion: 2026 Is the Year Open Finance Matures
The year ahead won’t just reshape risk management – it will redefine how trust is built and how confidence is scaled across open finance. Institutions that embrace open finance risk management will set the pace for a safer, more connected, more resilient ecosystem.
